October 16th Macroeconomic Index: China's Domestic and International News Highlights, Including Interest Rate Cuts and Global Tensions

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Domestic News

1. Wang Yi held talks with Murillo, Foreign Minister of Colombia

2. Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Bin met with Ambassador of Belarus to China Chervyakov

3. The autumn harvest in Henan is basically over

4. The world's largest floating offshore wind turbine was off the assembly line at CRRC Sheyang Base

5. A number of small and medium-sized banks cut interest rates. And here is still room for deposit interest rates to be lowered this year

 International News

1. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in November is 86.9% and the probability of not cutting interest rates is 13.1%

2. Israel and Iran are in tense state, and the United States and Israel communicate and negotiate retaliation "scale"

3. Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed to have attacked two ships in the Red Sea

4. The Israeli army once again issued an evacuation order to residents in the southern suburbs of Beirut

5. Affected by Hurricane "Milton", some gas stations in Florida, United States, have lost oil.

Domestic News

1. Wang Yi held talks with Murillo, Foreign Minister of Colombia

Wang Yi, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, held talks with Colombia Foreign Minister Murillo in Beijing on 10 July. Wang Yi said that China is ready to strengthen the synergy of development strategies with Colombia and welcomes Colombia to join the Belt and Road family as soon as possible. Murillo said that Colombia is willing to make every effort to implement the important strategic consensus reached by the two heads of state and deepen cooperation in various fields. Colombia attaches great importance to and is willing to actively participate in the Belt and Road Initiative. Wang Yi stressed that China appreciates Colombia's long-term adherence to the one-China principle and stands ready to work with Colombia to continue to firmly support each other in safeguarding core interests. Murillo stressed that Taiwan is an integral part of China's territory, and Colombia will continue to firmly abide by the one-China principle and support China's legitimate position.

2. Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Bin met with Ambassador of Belarus to China Chervyakov

On October 10, 2024, Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Bin met with Ambassador of Belarus to China Chervyakov. Liu Bin said that the two sides should implement the consensus reached by the heads of state and promote the sustained development of China-Belarus relations at a high level. Belarus has joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and China is ready to work with Belarus to promote cooperation in the political, economic, security and people-to-people and cultural fields of the SCO and to make the organization stronger and stronger. Chervyakov said that Belarus attaches great importance to developing relations with China and is willing to work with China to increase mutual support, deepen mutually beneficial cooperation, and strengthen international cooperation. Belarus fully supports China's presidency of the SCO and is ready to actively promote and participate in practical cooperation projects.

3. The autumn harvest in Henan is basically over

The reporter learned from the Henan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the 10th that the autumn crops in Henan Province have been harvested on a large scale since September 20, and the cumulative harvest of autumn crops has been 108.19 million mu so far, accounting for 92.5% of the planting area, of which 71.73 million mu of autumn grain has been harvested, accounting for 94% of the planting area. Except for yellow rice, late sweet potatoes, and vegetables, the autumn harvest in Henan has basically ended. In the next step, the focus of Henan's "three autumn" work will shift to wheat sowing, and the agricultural and rural departments will strengthen the implementation of the policy of benefiting farmers, earnestly implement key measures such as deep ploughing and land preparation, high-quality sowing, and actively build a high-yield wheat demonstration area to ensure that the wheat sowing area is stable at more than 85 million mu, ensure that enough wheat is planted, laying a solid foundation for next year's summer grain production.

4. The world's largest floating offshore wind turbine was off the assembly line at CRRC Sheyang Base

CRRC News, CRRC "Qihang" 20MW floating offshore wind turbine was successfully rolled off the assembly line in Jiangsu Sheyang CRRC Times Green Equipment Industrial Park. As the world's largest offshore floating wind turbine, the "Qihang" has broken the geographical restrictions and expanded the territory of wind power generation to a broader deep blue open sea, demonstrating the latest wisdom of CRRC's new development pattern of "duel tracks and duel clusters".

5. A number of small and medium-sized banks cut interest rates. And here is still room for deposit interest rates to be lowered this year

Recently, small and medium-sized banks in Shanxi, Xinjiang, Jilin and other places have issued intensive announcements, announcing the reduction of deposit interest rates, involving interest rates on various types of deposit products, ranging from 10 to 110 basis points. Industry participates believe that in the context of the decline in the loan market prime rate (LPR) and the adjustment of the interest rate of the existing housing loan, the recent reduction of deposit interest rates by small and medium-sized banks is mainly to alleviate the pressure of narrowing net interest margins. Moreover, this adjustment is also a follow-up to the previous reduction of deposit interest rates by large state-owned banks, and it is expected that there is still room for subsequent deposit interest rates to be lowered.

International News

1. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in November is 86.9% and the probability of not cutting interest rates is 13.1%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points by November is 86.9%, and the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 13.1%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by December is 86.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 0%; The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 0%.

2. Israel and Iran are in tense state, and the United States and Israel communicate and negotiate retaliation "scale"

Three United States and Israel officials said President Biden and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came closer to agreeing on the scope of Israel's planned retaliation against Iran in a call on Wednesday, according to US media AXIOS. The Biden administration acknowledges that Israel will soon launch a major attack on Iran, but fears that attacks on certain targets could sharply escalate regional wars. A senior Israel official said that Israel's current plan is still more radical than the White House hopes. However, a United States official said after Biden's phone call with Netanyahu that we are moving in the right direction. Another United States official said the United States government was less nervous about Israel's plans after the call. United States and Israel officials said that consultations between United States and Israel on the work of retaliation against Iran will continue in the coming days.

3. Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed to have attacked two ships in the Red Sea

Sarea, spokesman for the Yemen’s Houthi rebels, said in a statement that the Houthis attacked the United States oil tanker "OLYMPIC SPIRIT" with 11 ballistic missiles and two drones in the Red Sea, hitting the target and causing serious damage; And it hit "ST. JOHN" tanker by missile in the India Ocean. Sarea reaffirmed his support for Palestine and Lebanon and would continue to carry out attacks on Israel-related vessels until Israel lifted its blockade of the Gaza Strip and ceased its military operations in Lebanon.

4. The Israeli army once again issued an evacuation order to residents in the southern suburbs of Beirut

On the evening of October 10, local time, the Israel Defense Forces once again issued an urgent warning to some residents in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, asking residents in the two buildings and surrounding buildings in the Haret Herek area to evacuate immediately and stay at least 500 meters away from them. The Israeli army said it would soon take action against that target.

5. Affected by Hurricane "Milton", some gas stations in Florida, United States, have lost oil.

Due to Hurricane Milton, gas stations in parts of Florida are not available. According to data from the fuel tracking platform GasBuddy, as of 10:30 Eastern Time on the 10th of United States, about 24.8% of gas stations in Florida were out of fuel. It is reported that in some of the severely affected areas, the shortage of fuel at gas stations is even more serious. The governor of Florida said on the morning of the 10th that officials are working to ensure that fuel supplies are restored as soon as possible. In addition, "Milton" caused a major water tube to break, and some parts of Florida issued notices reminding residents to boil their drinking water.

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