November 28th Macroeconomic Index:The efficiency of industrial enterprises has improved, and the world has paid attention to economic recovery and energy transformation.

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Domestic News

1. National Bureau of Statistics: The efficiency of industrial enterprises has improved

2. From January to October 2024, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country fell by 4.3%

3. CFFEX issued a notice on increasing the deliverable treasury bonds of 10-year treasury bond futures contracts

4. General Administration of Customs: Promote the cross-border e-commerce retail export cross-customs return of goods supervision model

5. Rong 360: In October, the interest rate of fixed deposits of various maturities fell and the interest rate on large certificates of deposit entered the prefix of "1".

 International News

1. German consumer confidence has fallen and the economic crisis has intensified

2. French budget concerns intensify. The yield spread between France and Germany on 10-year government bonds rose to a multi-year high

3. The European Commission released the 2024 European autumn package

4. The meeting minutes of the Federal Reserv in November showed that Fed officials expressed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, allowing further rate cuts, but only gradually

5. Australia is on track to meet its emissions reduction target by 2030

Domestic News

1. National Bureau of Statistics: The efficiency of industrial enterprises has improved

Yu Weining, a statistician from the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the data and said that in October, with the coordinated efforts of the stock policy and the package of incremental policies, the production of industrial enterprises above designated size grew steadily, and the decline in corporate profits narrowed significantly in the month. The profitability of most industries improved compared with the previous month, the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry and other new driving energy support role was strong, and the profit decline of raw material manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing industry narrowed significantly. The performance of enterprises showed the following main characteristics: the decline in operating income and profit of industrial enterprises in the month narrowed. More than sixty percent of the industry's profitability improved from the previous month, and the manufacturing industry was the most obvious. Profits of different types of enterprises have rebounded. The profits of the equipment manufacturing industry have changed from decline to increase. On the whole, although the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size are still in the declining range, the efficiency of industrial enterprises has improved driven by the accelerated implementation of the stock policy and the introduction of a package of incremental policies. (National Bureau of Statistics)

2. From January to October 2024, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country fell by 4.3%

From January to October, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5,868.04 billion yuan, down 4.3 percent year-on-year. From January to October, among the industrial enterprises above designated size, the total profit of state-controlled enterprises was 1,853.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%; the total profit of joint-stock enterprises was 4,371.85 billion yuan, down by 5.7 percent; The total profits of foreign-funded enterprises and enterprises with investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan were 1,455.90 billion yuan, up by 0.9 percent; The total profit of private enterprises was 1,650.17 billion yuan, down by 1.3 percent. (National Bureau of Statistics)

3. CFFEX issued a notice on increasing the deliverable treasury bonds of 10-year treasury bond futures contracts

 The 2024 book-entry interest-bearing (23rd) treasury bonds have been tendered for issuance. According to the Detailed Rules for the Delivery of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts of the China Financial Futures Exchange and related regulations, the treasury bonds meet the conditions for deliverable treasury bonds of T2412, T2503 and T2506 contracts, with conversion factors of 0.9182, 0.9199 and 0.9217, respectively. The treasury bonds are included in the scope of deliverable treasury bonds of T2412, T2503 and T2506 from the next trading day after the listing trading date, and can be used for declaration of intention to deliver. (China Financial Futures Exchange)

4. General Administration of Customs: Promote the cross-border e-commerce retail export cross-customs return of goods supervision model

The General Administration of Customs issued an announcement on further promoting the development of cross-border e-commerce exports. In Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Harbin, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Nanchang, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Huangpu, Chengdu, Urumqi Customs and other 20 Customs directly under the Customs to carry out cross-border e-commerce retail export cross-customs area return supervision mode pilot. Cross-border e-commerce retail export (9610 mode) returned goods are allowed to be returned across the customs area, and the returned goods shall be returned to the customs supervision operation site (site) where cross-border e-commerce retail export business is carried out. Enterprises carrying out cross-border e-commerce retail export cross-customs return business should standardize their operations, have the data of the enterprise's production and operation system, and open it to the customs or connect with the customs information system.

5. Rong 360: In October, the interest rate of fixed deposits of various maturities fell and the interest rate on large certificates of deposit entered the prefix of "1".

In October 2024, the average interest rate of the bank was 1.268% for 3 months, 1.471% for 6 months, 1.588% for 1 year, 1.701% for 2 years, 2.061% for 3 years and 2.027% for 5 years. Compared with September, the average interest rate of banks fell sharply across all maturities, with maturities of less than 2 years falling by more than 21 basis points, 3-year maturities falling the most at 25.4 basis points, and 5-year maturities falling by 23.6 basis points. At the same time, Rong 360 data shows that in October 2024, the average interest rate of the 3-month interest rate of the issued large-amount certificates of deposit was 1.524%, the average interest rate of the 6-month was 1.71%, and the average interest rate of the 1-year was 1.857%, which was 7.15 basis points, 8.6 basis points, and 2.42 basis points respectively compared with September last month. This means that the interest rate on large certificates of deposit of banks, which is a "weapon for savings", has gradually fallen to the prefix of "1". (SSE News)

International News

1. German consumer confidence has fallen and the economic crisis has intensified

German consumer confidence fell this month to its lowest level since May amid falling income expectations, fears of unemployment and heightened fears of an impending recession. Hopes for a cautious economic recovery have faded this year as consumer spending has failed to grow as expected and manufacturing has remained sluggish due to high energy prices and an unfavourable global environment for German exports. Germany's ruling coalition collapsed in early November due to a dispute over public lending, and Trump's tariff policy brought new troubles. Growth forecasts have been revised downwards and the European Commission now expects the economy to contract this year. The survey showed that pessimism about the economy among Germans rose for the fourth month in a row. Weaker consumer confidence could increase the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the ECB in December, and policymakers are increasingly seeking to spur economic growth while services prices remain high.

2. French budget concerns intensify. The yield spread between France and Germany on 10-year government bonds rose to a multi-year high

The data showed that the 10-year OAT-German bund-German yield spread widened to 90 basis points, the highest since 2012, as uncertainty over next year's budget made investors nervous. "Investors remain concerned about political developments in France, especially given the uncertain budget outlook for the French government next year," analysts at Unicredit Bank Research said in a note. "Analysts say that the possibility of a further widening of spreads cannot be ruled out. They said the current limited liquidity in the U.S. ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday could exacerbate price volatility.

3. The European Commission released the 2024 European autumn package

The European Commission released the European Autumn Package for 2024, which pointed out that in order to get out of the energy crisis encountered during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the public debt of member states has risen sharply, and the fiscal deficit has reached a higher level. As such, the plan lays out the fiscal pathways of member countries in the coming years, prioritizing investments, and reforms to promote growth to reduce debt and deficits. In accordance with the regulations, the European Commission initiated excessive deficit procedures for eight countries, involving Belgium, France, Italy, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

4. The meeting minutes of the Federal Reserv in November showed that Fed officials expressed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, allowing further rate cuts, but only gradually

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting showed that Fed officials expressed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, allowing for further rate cuts, but only gradually. Some officials see that the option to pause or accelerate rate cuts depends on economic data. Some officials have said the Fed could pause easing and keep policy rates at restrictive levels if inflation remains high. Some officials said easing could accelerate if the labor market is weak or economic activity falters. Fed officials are considering cutting the reverse repo rate to align it with the lower bound of the benchmark interest rate range.

5. Australia is on track to meet its emissions reduction target by 2030

The Australian government said it was on track to meet its emissions reduction targets by 2030, despite concerns that the national rollout of renewable energy would not be fast enough to meet legislative targets. According to estimates from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water Resources provided by the Australian Government, Australia's emissions are expected to fall by 42.6 per cent by 2030 from 2005 levels, well below the 32 per cent reduction target projected two years ago, in line with current policy settings. For Australia's overall emissions budget for 2021 to 2030, the government said they expect the country to fall 3% below target. Signatories to the Paris Agreement must provide projections for 2035 by February next year as part of a global effort to advance green energy goals.

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