November 13th Macroeconomic Index: China's SME Development Index Rebounds, Digital Trade Cooperation Advances

Daily Macro Economy News

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. In the third quarter, China's SME Development Index rebounded

2. Ministry of Commerce: Improve the level of economic and trade cooperation in the digital field with the joint construction countries

3. Ministry of Commerce: Accelerate the negotiations on the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Version 3.0

4. Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation: The warehousing land of the logistics enterprises can enjoy preferential urban land use tax

International News

1. Yellen: The United States intends to crack down on the circumvention of price limits on Russian oil exports

2. Goldman Sachs: A surge in U.S. Treasury yields will dampen U.S. economic growth, but there will be no recession

3. Economists: The Fed will continue to raise interest rates, and a big fall in the stock market is brewing

4. The Ministry of Finance of Finland expects the country's economy to fall into recession in the second half of the year

Domestic News

1. In the third quarter, China's SME Development Index rebounded

The China Association of Small and Medium Enterprises released on the 10th that with a series of measures to stabilize growth take effect, the development Index of the the China small and medium-sized enterprise returned to the rising range in the third quarter, and a number of sub-indexes and sub-industry indices rose significantly. Data showed that China's SME Development Index rose sharply by 1.3 points in the first quarter of this year, fell by 0.3 points in the second quarter, and rose by 0.2 points again in the third quarter to 89.2.

2. Ministry of Commerce: Improve the level of economic and trade cooperation in the digital field with the joint construction countries

Vice Minister of Commerce Guo Tingting said that we will follow the trend of the development of the global digital economy and take the "Silk Road E-commerce" as the starting point to improve the level of economic and trade cooperation in the digital field with the partner country. On the one hand, we will continue to optimize the cooperation platform, actively meet the demands of partner countries, promote the in-depth cooperation through platforms such as the Global Digital Trade Expo, accelerate the construction of the "Silk Road E-commerce" cooperation pilot zone, and explore new measures and new paths for cooperation. On the other hand, we will continue to expand cooperation areas, further strengthen policy communication, industrial docking, local cooperation and capacity building, accelerate the development of some new fields such as digital payment and smart logistics, and jointly enhance digital development capabilities and share digital development opportunities with partner countries.

3. Ministry of Commerce: Accelerate the negotiations on the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Version 3.0

Vice Minister of Commerce Guo Tingting said at a press release today that in the next step, in accordance with the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, we will work with relevant departments and localities to solidly promote the construction of new land-sea channels and create a benchmark for high-quality cooperation in jointly building the "Belt and Road". The first is to promote more ASEAN countries to participate in the construction of the corridor and continuously enhance the resilience and vitality of the channel. The second is to implement high quality RCEP, accelerate the negotiations on the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area version 3.0, and promote mutual promotion and joint development of the channel and trade. The third is to accelerate the implementation of cooperation planning and strive to form an interconnection network which is three-dimension and multi-dimensional, efficient, open, safe, stable and modern by 2035.

4. Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation: The warehousing land of the logistics enterprises can enjoy preferential urban land use tax

According to the official account of the State Administration of Taxation, in order to promote the healthy development of the logistics industry, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a document clarifying that from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2027, the land used for bulk commodity storage facilities that self-owned (including self-use and leasing) or leased by logistics enterprises will be subject to 50% urban land use tax in accordance with the applicable tax standard of the land grade.

International News

1. Yellen: The United States intends to crack down on the circumvention of price limits on Russian oil exports

U. S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the U.S. was prepared to crack down on circumvention of G-7 price limits on Russian oil exports, as recent market prices suggested the mechanism may no longer work as expected. Yellen declared that the U.S. "is looking very carefully at the implementation and enforcement situation, and we want to make sure that market participants are clear that we are serious about price limits, and we take compliance with them seriously to the extent that we use Western services." At the gap of this week's annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Marrakech, Morocco, Yellen is expected to discuss oil price caps and enforcement with other G-7 finance ministers.

2. Goldman Sachs: A surge in U.S. Treasury yields will dampen U.S. economic growth, but there will be no recession

Economists of the Goldman Sachs Group said that the surge in U.S. Treasury yields which even reached record high in the past few weeks will dampen economic growth and bring financial risks. However, the bank still predicts that the economy will not fall into recession. Goldman Sachs economists David Mericle and Ronnie Walker wrote in a note to clients that "the main effect of further tightening of financial conditions that led by rising interest rates is that it will be a longer-term drag on GDP growth." The Goldman Sachs team expects the impact on the U.S. economy in the coming year will be about 0.5 percentage points of the GDP, which is "significant," but not as much as the impact caused by tighter financial conditions last year, and "it is too small to create the risk of recession."

3. Economists: The Fed will continue to raise interest rates, and a big fall in the stock market is brewing

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at Lombard Street Research, said that the investors who still hope the Fed can steer the U.S. economy to a soft landing and avoid hurting global market will be disappointed. Blitz wrote in a report that banks' balance sheets showed pressure from rising interest rates, and that 5 percent yield on long-term U.S. Treasuries could cause retirement savings to leave the stock market. "They will raise rates as usual until something break down," he said when it comes to the Fed. "The interest rates now have finally reached the point where something could break down."

4. The Ministry of Finance of Finland expects the country's economy to fall into recession in the second half of the year

According to the economic survey released by the Finnish Ministry of Finance on the 9th, the country's economy will fall into recession in the second half of this year. The Ministry of Finance of the Finland stated that the economy growth ran well at the start of 2023, but rising commodity prices and interest rates led to a reduction in private consumption and investment, which would lead the economy into recession in the second half of the year, and growth will be zero this year. The Ministry of Finance expects inflation in Finland to slow in 2024 and interest rates to start falling and household purchasing power to grow accordingly. In addition, Finland's economy is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

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