November 13th Macroeconomic Index: China-Laos Train Traffic Surges, Economic Confidence Grows

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Domestic News

1. General Administration of Customs: In the first 10 months of this year, there were 6,525 China-Laos trains under customs supervision, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%

2. People's Daily front-page commentary: confidence in achieving the expected target of about 5% is increasing

3. Interbank deposits are expected to usher in standardized pricing, which will help strengthen the effectiveness of policy interest rate transmission

4. CICC: Investors' risk appetite in 2025 is expected to be better than in 2024

5. COMAC: It is expected that the Chinese market will receive 9,323 passenger aircraft in the next 20 years

 International News

1. The US media predict that the Republican Party will win control of the House of Representatives

2. The leaders of Iran and Saudi Arabia stressed the irreversibility of their relations

3. Israel's new Defense Minister: There will be no ceasefire in Lebanon until the goal is achieved

4. The growth rate of wages in the UK has hardly slowed down, providing a basis for the Bank of England to cut interest rates cautiously

5. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed to hold an early vote of confidence, and the CDU Chairman may finalize the election date

Domestic News

1. General Administration of Customs: In the first 10 months of this year, there were 6,525 China-Laos trains under customs supervision, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%.

According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first 10 months of this year, there were 6,525 China-Laos trains under customs supervision, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%; supervised 1,700 China-Vietnam trains, a year-on-year increase of 47%. The data also shows that in the first 10 months, the country's import and export through the new western land-sea corridor was 1.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, 3.6 percentage points higher than China's overall growth rate, and the operation quality and efficiency of the new western land-sea corridor continued to improve. In the same period, the total value of agricultural products exported by provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) along the new western land-sea corridor was 26.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%.

2. People's Daily front-page commentary: confidence in achieving the expected target of about 5% is increasing

"People's Daily" published an article by Jin Sheping, saying that confidence in achieving the expected target of about 5% is increasing. After the release of the "third quarterly report", many foreign institutions raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, and Goldman Sachs raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 4.7% to 4.9%. Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase China, believes that China's economic growth momentum rebounded moderately at the end of the third quarter, and domestic activity indicators generally exceeded market expectations in September.  A large number of incremental policies are "on the way". The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission said that incremental policy measures are being introduced and implemented one after another, and new incremental policies are also being studied and reserved. "As the policy effect continues to take effect, the economy will show a trend of high in the front, low in the middle and back throughout the year." Huang Hanquan, president of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said.

3. Interbank deposits are expected to usher in standardized pricing, which will help strengthen the effectiveness of policy interest rate transmission

Since the beginning of this year, interest rates in the financial market have generally fallen, but interbank deposit rates have not followed this trend. According to the statistics of brokerages, in the first half of this year, the average interbank interest payment rate of listed banks increased significantly, which became a drag on the cost side of banks. At the same time, the scale of interbank deposits also showed rapid growth. Industry participates believe that this is related to the standardization of manual interest supplements in April this year, and after the manual interest supplements were banned, the growth rate of general deposits of commercial banks slowed down, and the dependence on interbank deposits was further deepened.

4. CICC: Investors' risk appetite in 2025 is expected to be better than in 2024

CICC's research report pointed out that the bottom may have passed, and investors' risk appetite in 2025 is expected to be better than in 2024, and structural opportunities will further increase. Looking ahead to 2025, it is still necessary to face up to the challenges of macroeconomic fundamentals from the macro paradigm shift, but the medium-term bottom of the market may already appear in 2024, and whether the trend reversal will be achieved depends on whether policy can eventually reverse the low inflation environment and improve investor expectations. In 2024, the market will be driven by valuation repair, and it is crucial to successfully switch from valuation-driven to fundamental-driven in 2025.

5. COMAC: It is expected that the Chinese market will receive 9,323 passenger aircraft in the next 20 years

At the Zhuhai Airshow on November 12, COMAC released the "COMAC Market Forecast Annual Report (2024-2043)", pointing out that the global passenger turnover is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.75% in the next 20 years, reaching 20.83 trillion passenger kilometers in 2043. According to the analysis of the annual report, China's passenger turnover will grow at an average annual rate of 5.3% and the average annual growth rate of the fleet will be 4.4% in the next 20 years, and it is expected that China's air transport market will receive 9,323 jetliners. China is expected to become the world's largest single air transport market.

International News

1. The US media predict that the Republican Party will win control of the House of Representatives

According to the forecast of the "Decision Desk Headquarters", a U.S. election forecasting agency of The Hill, the Republican Party was expected to win the 218th House seat on the 11th and win control of the House of Representatives. However, according to the Associated Press, Republicans have now won 214 seats in the House of Representatives, and have not yet reached the 218-seat target to win control.

2. The leaders of Iran and Saudi Arabia stressed the irreversibility of their relations

According to the Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency, on the 11th local time, Iran's First Vice President Aref, who attended the extraordinary summit of Arab-Islamic leaders, held a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. The two sides stressed the irreversibility of bilateral relations.

3. Israel's new Defense Minister: There will be no ceasefire in Lebanon until the goal is achieved

On the 12th local time, Israel's new Defense Minister Katz said that before the goal was achieved, Israel would not cease fire in Lebanon and would not give Lebanese Hezbollah a chance to breathe. Katz said Israel would ensure the disarmament of Hezbollah and the safe return of northern Israeli residents to their homes.

4. The growth rate of wages in the UK has hardly slowed down, providing a basis for the Bank of England to cut interest rates cautiously

The slower-than-expected cooling of UK wage growth could cement the BoE's cautious stance on a faster rate cut. The Office for National Statistics reported on Tuesday that average wages before bonuses rose 4.8% year-on-year in the three months to the end of September, slightly lower than the previous 4.9% and above the median forecast of 4.7%. This data supports the cautious attitude of the Bank of England. Last week, the bank cut interest rates for the second time this year.

5. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed to hold an early vote of confidence, and the CDU Chairman may finalize the election date

According to CCTV News, the latest news shows that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has agreed to vote in a vote of confidence before December 25. After the collapse of the "traffic light" coalition, Merz, the candidate for chancellor of the German Federal Chancellor and chairman of the CDU, wants to hold early elections in February 2025.

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