March 25 Macroeconomic Index:Domestic proactive fiscal policy and energy breakthroughs; international focus on Russia-US talks and Iran nuclear issue

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Domestic News 

1. Ministry of Finance: Fiscal policy should be more active in 2025

2. China discovered the first 100-million-ton shale oil field

3. Ministry of Finance: From January to February, the national general public budget revenue was 4,385.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%

4. Ministry of Finance: From January to February, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 474.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%

5. Wang Chunying, President of the Export-Import Bank of China: It is recommended that when conditions are mature, a pilot free trade zone should be added in the western or northeastern regions

 International News

1. The Russian-American delegation held talks in Riyadh

2. Russia criticizes the EU's policy towards Ukraine for neglecting to address the root causes of the conflict

3. Vice Chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran: Resolutely defend its nuclear rights, and Western pressure may cause the opposite effect

4. Nippon Steel: U.S. tariffs may cause Japan's annual crude steel output to fall below 80 million tons

5. Iran's Foreign Minister said that the change of US policy is a prerequisite for negotiations, and the US threatens to "completely dismantle" Iran's nuclear program

Domestic News

1. Ministry of Finance: Fiscal policy should be more active in 2025

The Ministry of Finance released the 2024 report on the implementation of China's fiscal policy. The report mentioned that the fiscal policy in 2025 should be more active, sustained and more powerful, which should be shown in five aspects: First, increase the fiscal deficit rate, increase expenditure, and accelerate the progress of expenditure. The second is to arrange larger-scale government bonds to provide more support for stable growth and structural adjustment. The third is to vigorously optimize the expenditure structure, strengthen precise investment, and pay more attention to benefiting people's livelihood, promoting consumption, and increasing stamina. Fourth, we will continue to make efforts to prevent and resolve risks in key areas and promote the stable and sustainable development of finance. Fifth, we should further increase transfer payments to local governments, enhance local financial resources, and strengthen the bottom line of the "three guarantees".

2. China discovered the first 100-million-ton shale oil field

On March 22, China's oil and gas exploration field ushered in a major breakthrough, and the 100-million-ton proven reserves of Jiyang Shale Oil Emerging Oilfield of Sinopec Shengli Oilfield officially passed the reserve review and filing of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China. Located in Gaoqing County, Zibo City, Shandong Province, the emerging oilfield Fanyeping 1 block has more than 140 million tons of proven geological reserves of oil in shale formations and 11.3599 million tons of technically recoverable reserves. This is the first shale oil field with proven geological reserves of 100 million tons approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources.

3. Ministry of Finance: From January to February, the national general public budget revenue was 4,385.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%

Ministry of Finance: From January to February, the national general public budget revenue was 4,385.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. From January to February, the stamp duty was 84.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%. Among them, the stamp duty on securities transactions was 23.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.9%. From January to February, the national general public budget expenditure was 4,509.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. In terms of central and local governments, the expenditure of the central general public budget at the same level was 524.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%; The local general public budget expenditure was 3,985.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%.

4. Ministry of Finance: From January to February, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 474.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%

Ministry of Finance: From January to February, the national government fund budget revenue was 638.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. In terms of central and local governments, the budget revenue of central government funds was 80.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; The budget revenue of local government funds at the same level was 557.3 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, of which the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 474.4 billion yuan, down 15.7 percent year-on-year.

5. Wang Chunying, President of the Export-Import Bank of China: It is recommended that when conditions are mature, a pilot free trade zone should be added in the western or northeastern regions

Wang Chunying, President of the Export-Import Bank of China, said at the 2025 annual meeting of the China Development Forum on March 24 that there is still room for improvement in China's institutional opening-up. At present, all restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector have been cleared, but the degree of openness of the service industry needs to be further improved. Wang Chunying suggested that we should take the initiative to benchmark international high-standard economic and trade rules and reasonably relax the access of foreign investment. Actively align high-level international economic and trade rules in areas such as digital trade, trade in services, environment, government procurement, and e-commerce, further relax foreign investment activities in service trade such as telecommunications, education, medical care, and finance, reasonably reduce the negative list for foreign investment access, and promote open and orderly competition in the service industry. In addition, the construction of free trade zones and free trade ports will be accelerated. Wang Chunying said that the core task of the pilot free trade zone and free trade port is institutional innovation. It is necessary for China to further optimize the layout of the pilot free trade zone, and when the conditions are ripe, add a pilot free trade zone in the western or northeast region, focus on commercial, trade, regulatory and other systems, break through bottlenecks, and prudently open up.

International News

1. The Russian-American delegation held talks in Riyadh

The Russian and U.S. delegations held talks in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, on March 24, and the talks began at around 15 o'clock Beijing time. The press secretary of the Russian President said on the 23rd that "difficult negotiations" have just begun. Also on the 23rd, the United States and Ukraine delegations held talks in Riyadh, and Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov said after the talks that the talks were "fruitful" and that the two sides discussed energy security, infrastructure protection and ceasefire options.

2. Russia criticizes the EU's policy towards Ukraine for neglecting to address the root causes of the conflict

Russian presidential press secretary Peskov said on the 23rd local time that the EU's policy on the Ukraine issue is contradictory, claiming to support peace on the one hand, and promoting militarization on the other hand. He criticized European countries for discussing the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine while neglecting to address the root causes of the conflict, saying that "this rampant militaristic policy in Europe is incomprehensible." Peskov also mentioned that after Trump's return to the White House, the EU is facing more defense pressure. He warned that French President Emmanuel Macron's rhetoric of providing a "nuclear umbrella" for EU countries was "very dangerous."

3. Vice Chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran: Resolutely defend its nuclear rights, and Western pressure may cause the opposite effect

According to a report by Iranian Press TV on the 23rd local time, Behrouz Kamalvandi, Vice Chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said on the same day that Iran was "unswervingly" defending its nuclear rights and warned that Iran "hopes that Western countries can realize that pressure on Iran is ineffective and may even have the opposite effect." U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum on February 4 to restart a series of "maximum pressure" measures against Iran during his first presidential term, including seeking to reduce the scale of the latter's oil exports to "zero" in order to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

4. Nippon Steel: U.S. tariffs may cause Japan's annual crude steel output to fall below 80 million tons

Imai Masa, President of Nippon Steel Corporation, said at a press conference on March 24 that the Trump administration's measures to impose tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and other products may reduce Japan's domestic crude steel output by millions of tons a year, and the total output may fall to less than 80 million tons.

5. Iran's Foreign Minister said that the change of US policy is a prerequisite for negotiations, and the US threatens to "completely dismantle" Iran's nuclear program

U.S. President Donald Trump recently sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei proposing negotiations, but Khamenei has publicly stated that he refuses to negotiate with the United States because the United States "intends to deceive Iran." Iran's Foreign Minister said on the 23rd that a change in US policy is a prerequisite for negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on March 23 local time that Iran's refusal to negotiate with the United States is based on history, experience and precedent, not because of stubbornness. Araghchi stressed that in the current situation, it is no longer possible for Iran to negotiate with the United States, unless "something changes." Araghchi further explained that the form and text of the JCPOA cannot be restored at present, and Iran's nuclear situation has made great progress, so it is impossible to return to the framework stipulated in the JCPOA. However, the agreement can still be the basis and model for negotiations.

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