July 24th Macroeconomic Index: Beijing Banks Lower Mortgage Rates, Cloud Computing Market to Surpass 2.1 Trillion Yuan by 2027

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Domestic News

1. The Ministry of Transport signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Agricultural Development Bank of China, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China

2. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is the cornerstone of the international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime

3. Many banks in Beijing quickly lowered the mortgage interest rate, and the interest rate on the first home loan in Beijing dropped to 3.4%

4. National Health Insurance Administration: Establish a working group on medical insurance data

5. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology: It is estimated that the scale of China's cloud computing market will exceed 2.1 trillion yuan in 2027

International News

1. ECB Vice President Guindos: The ECB may be more confident about cutting interest rates in September

2. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has approved about 240 million tons of nickel production by RKAB in 2024

3. Commerzbank: Inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom may rise again

4. Russian Deputy Prime Minister: The ban on gasoline exports will be resumed from August 1

5. Economist: Germany needs to solve the debt brake problem

Domestic News

1. The Ministry of Transport signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Agricultural Development Bank of China, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China

Recently, the Ministry of Transport signed a strategic cooperation agreements with three policy banks, including the Agricultural Development Bank of China, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China. According to the cooperation agreement, the Ministry of Transport will further deepen cooperation with the three policy banks, give full play to the role of policy finance, focus on key areas, major projects and key projects, support key tasks such as cost reduction, quality and efficiency improvement of transportation and logistics, large-scale equipment renewal of transportation, construction of a high-quality comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network, interconnection of transportation infrastructure along the "Belt and Road", and construction of "four good rural roads", coordinate high-quality development and high-level safety, and effectively promote the high-quality development of transportation. (Ministry of Transport)

2. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is the cornerstone of the international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs held a regular press conference today. Mao Ning said that the second preparatory meeting for the 11th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is being held in Geneva. The Treaty is the cornerstone of the international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime and an important pillar of the global governance system for security and development. As a State party to the Treaty, China has always firmly upheld the object and purpose of the Treaty, faithfully fulfilled its obligations, and advocated a comprehensive and balanced advancement of the three pillars of the Treaty: nuclear disarmament, nuclear non-proliferation and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The Chinese delegation will follow President Xi Jinping's proposal to build a community with a shared future for mankind, adhere to the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, work together with all parties, play a positive and constructive role, continuously strengthen the universality, authority and effectiveness of the treaty, and jointly promote world peace, security and development. (CCTV News)

3. Many banks in Beijing quickly lowered the mortgage interest rate, and the interest rate on the first home loan in Beijing dropped to 3.4%

A number of banks in Beijing have begun to cut mortgage rates, with the interest rate on the first home loan falling to 3.4% and the second home loan interest rate as low as 3.6%. "The LPR fell yesterday, and the mortgage interest rate followed." A customer manager of China Merchants Bank in Beijing said that the current interest rate for the first home loan is as low as 3.4%, and the second home needs to be located within the Fifth Ring Road or outside the Fifth Ring Road. "After the LPR cut, the interest rate on the first home loan fell to 3.4%; In the case of a second home, the mortgage interest rate will be reduced to 3.8% if the customer buys a house within the 5th Ring Road, and 3.6% if he buys a house outside the 5th Ring Road. A person from the personal loan center of a branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Beijing told reporters. (SSE News)

4. National Health Insurance Administration: Establish a working group on medical insurance data

The Office of the National Healthcare Security Administration issued a notice on printing and distributing the 2.0 version of the grouping plan for payment according to the disease group and disease types and further promoting related work. It mentions the establishment of a working group on health insurance data. All coordinating areas should further implement the requirements for announcing the operation of the medical insurance fund to the public, and regularly "show the foundation" to designated medical institutions to improve the transparency of work. Encourage all coordinating regions to explore the establishment of a "medical insurance data working group", composed of representatives of different levels and types of medical institutions, with no less than 8 people, and the members are changed and adjusted every year. The data working group cooperates with the local medical insurance departments to timely, comprehensively and accurately report the overall operation of the medical insurance fund, sub-expenditures, and the cost distribution of medical institutions in the region, promote the sharing of medical insurance data and medical data, and form a good reform atmosphere of joint governance and benign interaction.

5. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology: It is estimated that the scale of China's cloud computing market will exceed 2.1 trillion yuan in 2027

At the 2024 Trusted Cloud Summit, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released the Cloud Computing White Paper (2024). Li Wei, Deputy Director of the Institute of Cloud Computing and Big Data of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, said that the cloud computing market size in 2023 totaled 616.5 billion yuan, an increase of 35.5% over 2021, and with the innovation of cloud computing technology brought by AI native and the large-scale application of large models, the development of China's cloud computing industry will usher in a new round of growth curve, and it is expected that the scale of China's cloud computing market will exceed 2.1 trillion yuan by 2027. Among them, the SaaS market growth rate is 23.1%, and it is expected to become the main way for small and medium-sized innovative enterprises to compete in the future as AI large models enter the commercial landing stage. The PaaS market grew by 74.9% year-on-year, and will continue to increase driven by the demand for public cloud overseas business and AI development.

International News

1. ECB Vice President Guindos: The ECB may be more confident about cutting interest rates in September

ECB Vice President Guindos said in an interview with Euronews that the bank would wait for more detailed data before cutting interest rates. Earlier this month, the ECB left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its last meeting. "We have decided to keep interest rates unchanged because we will have more information in September, especially new macroeconomic forecasts, so we will be able to better reassess the monetary policy stance," Guindos said. He added that although eurozone inflation is close to the ECB's 2% target, the current uncertainty remains high. Wage data, as well as new employee projections, will be crucial in determining whether inflation is moving closer to target. "Statistically, September is easier to make decisions than July," Mr. Guindos said.

2. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has approved about 240 million tons of nickel production by RKAB in 2024

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revealed that it has approved a Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) of about 240 million tonnes of nickel production in 2024. According to Bambang Suswantono, Acting Director General of Minerals and Coal of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, it is believed that RKAB (nickel company) has an output of 240 million tons and while the need is only 210 million tons, so RKAB has already met Indonesia's nickel demand in 2024. （SMM）

3. Commerzbank: Inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom may rise again

Commerzbank said in a research report today that in the past year, the decline in United Kingdom core inflation has mainly come from commodity prices. There are three reasons why commodity prices have fallen: Many consumers bought durable goods during the pandemic, so they now don't need to buy new durable goods right away. Incomes are becoming tight, causing consumers to cut back on durable goods spending. The significant easing of the supply chain has put additional pressure on prices. This may not last, though. Real incomes are now rising again. At some point, consumers will need durable goods again. In addition, freight has recently become more expensive. In short, inflationary pressures are likely to rise again. If durable goods prices stop falling while service prices remain high, there will be little room for core inflation in the United Kingdom to fall. Correspondingly, there is less room for the United Kingdom Bank to cut interest rates more aggressively.

4. Russian Deputy Prime Minister: The ban on gasoline exports will be resumed from August 1

Russia Deputy Prime Minister Novak said on Tuesday that Russia will reinstate the ban on gasoline exports from Aug. 1 and is considering extending the ban until the fall. Russia banned gasoline exports for six months from March 1, but Moscow's economic union and some countries with direct intergovernmental agreements on fuel supplies to Russia, such as Mongolia, are not restricted. The ban was introduced to prevent fuel shortages and curb price increases after a series of drone attacks on refineries and technological disruptions in Ukraine. These restrictions were suspended in May until June 30 this year, and then extended until the end of July.

5. Economist: Germany needs to solve the debt brake problem

"Germany can choose to stick to its controversial debt brake by cutting social benefits, raising taxes or deteriorating Germany's infrastructure further," said Franziska Palmas, a macroeconomist at Capital Economics, "or loosen the 0.35 percent deficit rule to gain more room for public spending." She said in a report that the vulnerability of the public service, including railways, showed that Germany spent too little on infrastructure and defense in the 2010s, in part because of the debt brakes, and needed to catch up. If reforms occur (possibly after the 2025 election), the country could go through a transition phase of raising the deficit ceiling, or more sustained growth. Without reforms, she said, budget negotiations would continue to lead to political instability and Germany's investment problems would continue to go unresolved.

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