January 19th Macroeconomic Index: China's Consumption Trend Optimistic, Major Lithium Discovery in Sichuan

   Daily Macro Economy News

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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. National Bureau of Statistics: remain optimistic about the consumption trend in 2024

2. China's "lithium search" has made a major breakthrough in Yajiang, Sichuan. And Shengxin Lithium Energy's subsidiary company has the right to prospect for Murong mine

3. In 2023, the increment of RMB loans in Anhui Province exceeded one trillion yuan

4. National Development and Reform Commission: Actively expand the consumption of new energy vehicles and promote the high-quality development of the industry

International News

1. National Australia Bank: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to end its interest rate hikes

2. Japan's Kansai Electric Power Company said that it would start the nuclear reactor of Unit 3 of the Mihama Nuclear Power Plant

3. Goldman Sachs: The Australian employment market is expected to weaken in the first half of this year, and the Reserve Bank of Australia may start cutting interest rates in August

4. British media: The Basel president supports the strict proposals put forward by the United States on bank capital

Domestic News

1. National Bureau of Statistics: remain optimistic about the consumption trend in 2024

This afternoon (18th), the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference to interpret the macroeconomic situation and policies. At the press conference, the relevant person in charge introduced: In 2023, China's economy withstood external pressure, overcame internal difficulties, and continued to grow and develop while overcoming challenges. Against the backdrop of the world entering a new period of turbulence and change and the lack of momentum for global economic growth, China's economic development has shown the characteristics of "stability", "progress" and "high quality". The economy is picking up and improving. The total economic output for the whole year exceeded 126 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2 percent, employment prices were basically stable, and the foreign exchange reserves at the end of the year exceeded 3.2 trillion US dollars, successfully achieving the main expected goals of economic and social development for the whole year.

2. China's "lithium search" has made a major breakthrough in Yajiang, Sichuan. And Shengxin Lithium Energy's subsidiary company has the right to prospect for Murong mine

According to reports, China has discovered nearly one million tons of lithium resources in Yajiang, Sichuan, which is the largest pegmatite-type monomer lithium mine in Asia so far. "This has played an exemplary role in achieving a major breakthrough in finding lithium in China!" The reporter exclusively learned from many parties that the above-mentioned lithium mine is the Murong lithium mine located in Yajiang, Sichuan. A subsidiary of Shengxin Lithium Energy, a listed company, has the prospecting right of Murong Mine. According to the Geochemical Characteristics of Pegmatite Veins in the Methylka Burning Carbon Gully Area in Western Sichuan, the large vein belt where the Murong Mine is located is the famous Methylka Mining Area, and its adjacent veins include the Cuola Mine in Yajiang County of Tianqi Lithium and the Deluolongba Mine in Snowway. In December 2023, Shengxin Lithium Energy announced a capital increase, and its subsidiary increased its capital by 500 million yuan to Sichuan Qicheng Mining Co., Ltd. Yajiang County Huirong Mining Co., Ltd., which is controlled by Qicheng Mining, has the prospecting right of Murong lithium mine. The listed company previously disclosed that the procedures for the transfer of mining to exploration are being processed.

3. In 2023, the increment of RMB loans in Anhui Province exceeded one trillion yuan

The reporter learned from the first press conference of 2024 held by the Anhui Branch of the People's Bank of China on January 18 that at the end of 2023, the balance of RMB loans in Anhui Province was 7.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and the loan growth rate ranked first in the country for 13 consecutive months, with an annual increase of 1.06 trillion yuan. Since 2023, the Anhui Branch of the People's Bank of China has strengthened targeted support for key areas such as advanced manufacturing and new infrastructure, guided more funds to flow to weak links such as private small and micro enterprises and rural revitalization, and actively supported the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

4. National Development and Reform Commission: Actively expand the consumption of new energy vehicles and promote the high-quality development of the industry

Jin Xiandong, Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the National Development and Reform Commission will do a good job in implementing it, and work with relevant departments to improve policies, actively expand the consumption of new energy vehicles, and promote the high-quality development of the industry. The focus is on the "three accelerations". The first is to accelerate the optimization of policies and measures to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles, carry out in-depth activities of new energy vehicles to the countryside, vigorously promote the electrification of vehicles in the public sector, and promote the steady and healthy development of the new energy vehicle market. The second is to accelerate the technological innovation of new energy vehicles, strengthen the main position of automobile enterprises in innovation, improve the level of electrification and intelligent technology, and enhance the competitiveness of the new energy vehicle industry. The third is to accelerate the construction of a high-quality charging infrastructure system, continuously optimize and improve the layout of the charging network, accelerate the construction of infrastructure in key areas, improve the level of operation services, and provide strong support for the development of the new energy vehicle industry.

International News

1. National Australia Bank: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to end its interest rate hikes

Oil prices rose on Thursday as OPEC expects relatively strong growth in global oil demand over the next two years, market expectations of disruption to U.S. oil production due to a cold snap, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, price increases are currently limited due to the mix of factors taken into account in the market.

2. Japan's Kansai Electric Power Company said that it would start the nuclear reactor of Unit 3 of the Mihama Nuclear Power Plant

According to Kyodo News, Japan's Kansai Electric Power Company said on January 18 that it had activated the nuclear reactor of Unit 3 of the Mihama Nuclear Power Plant in Fukui Prefecture, which has been regularly inspected since October last year. Unit 3 of the Mihama Nuclear Power Plant was put into operation in December 1976 and has been in service for 47 years. In June 2021, the unit was restarted after a 10-year shutdown, the first time that a nuclear power unit that has been in operation for more than 40 years has been put into operation since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident was introduced, and the operating time of nuclear power units is 40 years in principle, but can be extended by up to 20 years. The Mihama Nuclear Power Plant has a total of 3 units, and Units 1 and 2, which were put into operation in the early 70s of the last century, have been approved for scrapping and are currently being dismantled.

3. Goldman Sachs: The Australian employment market is expected to weaken in the first half of this year, and the Reserve Bank of Australia may start cutting interest rates in August

Goldman Sachs noted that Australia's labour force survey showed that the unemployment rate was stable at 3.88% in December, in line with expectations. However, the details of the report were weaker than expected, with employment falling by 65,100 versus our expectation of a decrease of 30,000 and a 0.4 percentage point drop in the participation rate to 66.8%. While the monthly decline in employment was the largest since the Covid lockdown in 2021, we note that this only partially traces the large increase of 116,900 in November and October. In addition, the data includes potential seasonal influences, as job growth and working hours fluctuate significantly during the December/January holiday in Australia. Looking at monthly volatility, we still expect the Australian labour market to gradually weaken from tight levels in the first half of 2024, with the RBA likely to start cutting interest rates in August 2024.

4. British media: The Basel president supports the strict proposals put forward by the United States on bank capital

The chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said he supported the U.S. proposals to impose stricter requirements on banks than their British and EU counterparts, which had previously been strongly opposed by Wall Street. Hernandez de Cos, chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, said that what was being discussed was the full implementation of Basel III, which, by its very nature, only set minimum regulatory standards. U.S. regulators expect the new rules to increase banks' capital requirements by 16%. Hernandez de Cos said there was absolutely a case to go beyond the minimum requirement if any jurisdiction felt that Basel III implementation was not sufficient to provide the same level of financial stability guarantees for its banking sector. This is not only acceptable, it is, so to speak, necessary.

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