December 20 Macroeconomic Index:Economic Pulse-Domestic and International Market and Policy Updates

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. National Energy Administration: From January to November, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 8,968.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%

2. Ministry of Commerce: Accelerate the issuance of policy documents to promote the first economy

3. In November, the civil aviation transport market was generally stable, with double-digit year-on-year growth in passenger and freight transport

4. Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect has led to another wave of account opening, focusing on the allocation of these three types of products

5. In 2024, Shanghai's sea-rail intermodal transport volume exceeded 900,000 TEUs

 International News

1. ECB Governing Council: The ECB should maintain a consistent pace of interest rate cuts

2. UK 10-year government bond yields rose to their highest level in more than a year

3. Indonesia raised the special tax on crude palm oil exports and reaffirmed the implementation time of the B40 plan

4. A U.S. company filed a Section 337 investigation application against a specific passive optical network device that supports NETCONF

5. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled

Domestic News

1. National Energy Administration: From January to November, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 8,968.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%

From January to November, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 8,968.6 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.1 percent, of which the power generation of industries above designated size was 8,568.7 billion kilowatt hours. In terms of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 124.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 5,812.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 1,669.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 1,362.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. (National Energy Administration)

2. Ministry of Commerce: Accelerate the issuance of policy documents to promote the first economy

He Yongqian, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said at the regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce that the Ministry of Commerce will implement the policy documents to promote the high-quality development of service consumption, continuously enrich the supply of service consumption, and innovate diversified consumption scenarios. Cultivate and expand new types of consumption, accelerate the issuance of policy documents to promote the first economy, develop the ice and snow economy and the silver economy, and promote digital consumption, green consumption, and healthy consumption. Improve consumption conditions, deepen the cultivation and construction of international consumption center cities, promote the construction of a convenient living circle within a quarter of an hour, thoroughly implement the three-year commercial action at the county level, and promote the transformation and upgrading of "thousands of stores". (CSI Taurus)

3. In November, the civil aviation transport market was generally stable, with double-digit year-on-year growth in passenger and freight transport

In November, the overall production of civil aviation transport remained stable, and the total turnover of civil aviation in the country was 12.25 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and an increase of 14.3% over the same period in 2019. Civil aviation passenger and cargo traffic have achieved double-digit year-on-year growth, the passenger traffic of international routes in a single month has recovered by more than 90% compared with the same period in 2019 for five consecutive months, and the cargo and mail traffic volume has reached 800,000 tons for three consecutive months. (China Civil Aviation News)

4. Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect has led to another wave of account opening, focusing on the allocation of these three types of products

Recently, since the launch of Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect Version 2.0, the first batch of securities companies have officially launched their business and ushered in a boom in investor account opening. The person in charge of the business of a listed securities company in South China told reporters that the cross-border wealth management connect is the first interconnection mechanism opened separately for individual investors, and has been welcomed by residents of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and some investors have opened accounts with their whole families. The optional products cover deposits, wealth management products, funds and other forms, and do not occupy the limit of US$50,000 exchange quota and QDII fund quota. At present, there is a strong demand for overseas asset allocation among Chinese residents, but the screening of investment products is still a major problem. The reporter learned from various investigations that from the first batch of cross-border wealth management connect version 2.0 of the brokerage products on the shelves, foreign currency deposit wealth management, US dollar goods-based bonds, and passive index funds are the most representative products, while active equity is relatively rare. (Brokerage China)

5. In 2024, Shanghai's sea-rail intermodal transport volume exceeded 900,000 TEUs

On December 19, with the arrival of a sea-rail intermodal train at the Luchao Port Container Center Station of Shanghai Railway, the arrival and departure volume of Shanghai's sea-rail intermodal transport in 2024 historically exceeded the 900,000 TEU mark, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. With the close cooperation of the railway and port departments, sea-rail intermodal transport has become a key link to promote economic and trade cooperation among the countries of the Belt and Road. At present, the Shanghai sea-rail intermodal transport lines have covered more than 40 cities in 9 provinces across the country. (Xinhua News Agency)

International News

1. ECB Governing Council: The ECB should maintain a consistent pace of interest rate cuts

ECB Governing Council member Simkus said the ECB should continue to reduce borrowing costs at the current pace as inflation becomes more and more under control. The downside direction of monetary policy is clear, Simkus said. He warned that while price risks look balanced in 2025, downside risks could be in 2026. "When it comes to future decisions, they will be determined by the data available at that time. But the best-case scenario is a rhythmic and sustained cut towards the neutral rate. "Analysts expect the ECB to cut the deposit rate to 2% from the current 3%. Market investors are expecting a slightly more aggressive path (closing at 1.75%).

2. UK 10-year government bond yields rose to their highest level in more than a year

UK government bonds plunged on Thursday, following a sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries overnight after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he was more cautious about how quickly policymakers continue to cut borrowing costs. UK 10-year yields jumped 10 basis points to 4.656%, the highest level since October 2023. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision later today, and the median estimate in an institutional survey of economists is that the bank will leave rates unchanged at 4.75%. Wage data and stubbornly high inflation have prompted the market to remain cautious about the UK's easing policy. UK gilt performance has lagged other countries for much of the year, and that lag has widened further in recent days after data showed inflationary pressures in the UK economy remain. The Bank of England has only cut interest rates twice this year, lagging behind the ECB and the Fed.

3. Indonesia raised the special tax on crude palm oil exports and reaffirmed the implementation time of the B40 plan

According to foreign media reports, Indonesia's Chief Economic Minister said on Thursday that Indonesia will increase the special tax on crude palm oil exports (Levy) from the current 7.5% to 10%, and will implement the adjusted special export tax once the Ministry of Finance issues relevant regulations. In addition, the B40 biodiesel scheme will be mandatory on January 1, 2025.

4. A U.S. company filed a Section 337 investigation application against a specific passive optical network device that supports NETCONF

On December 16, 2024, Optimum Communicaitons Services, Inc., filed an application with the U.S. International Trade Commission under Section 337 of the U.S. Tariff Act of 1930, alleging infringement of its patents by certain NETCONF-enabled passive optical network equipment exported, imported or sold in the U.S., requesting a Section 337 investigation and a limited exclusion and injunction. Four Chinese companies were implicated. (Ministry of Commerce)

5. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.5% to 4.75% to 4.25% then to 4.5%. The latest dot plot shows that Fed officials have sharply raised the median of the target range for future policy rates and significantly raised their inflation expectations for next year and the year after. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that no tightening policies will make the Fed more cautious in further interest rate adjustments, and the decision statement means that the Fed is on the verge of slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts or pausing the pace of rate cuts. After the Fed's decision was announced, the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose sharply, and US stocks and gold fell.

Domestic Macro Economy Index